One of the Top 5 Priorities of Rishi Sunak’s UK Government is to “stop small boats”, with 2022 a record year and 44,755 people making it to the UK this way. On arrival most claim asylum. In 2018 the numbers making this crossing was just 299.
The record number of asylum seekers are on top of record legal migration, with immigration topping 1 million in the year to June 2022 doubling from 2020, and net migration at 560,000 up from 32,000 in 2020.
Whilst the numbers crossing in small boats is very high, put into context, these “illegal” crossings represent just 4.2% of total UK immigration, (to June 2022) with 65% expected to be granted legal asylum anyway, the “illegal” percentage reduces to 1.8%. Also compared to newish schemes for Hong Kongers (91,000), Ukrainians (82,000) and Afghans (21,000), the small boat populations no longer look so large. When compared also to non EU student visas granted (277,00) and visas to EU citizens (224,000), the attention being given to those that arrive on small boats appears excessive.
1. Executive Summary
Nevertheless, there are good reasons to focus on small boat crossings. The most obvious and regularly voiced reasons are concerns over the safety of those crossing in unseaworthy vessels across the busiest shipping lane in the world, and a desire to target the people smugglers who profit from illegality and the vulnerable, in many cases involving organised crime, with this activity identified as one of the UK’s National AML threat priorities, despite profits of just over a hundred million pounds a year as against estimates of UK wide financial crime / moneys laundered in excess of £100 billion.
By exploring the phenomenon of the small boats in more detail, its appears that
- people smuggling in small boats generates around 0.1% of estimated financial crime proceeds – money’s laundered in or connected to the UK, and less than 1% of these criminal profits are seized and or recovered.
- some significant law enforcement successes have been achieved against the people smugglers, including by targeting boat sales and logistics, and some groups have been effectively disrupted, the overall trade has not, and others have backfilled any gaps, with big annual growth rates still being recorded – though the trafic in 2023 does appear down so far..
- deaths in lorries for asylum seekers actually exceeded deaths in the channel when this was the preferred route
- many of the policy interventions to date aimed at disrupting people smuggling networks may instead have made smuggling more lucrative and increased the incentives for criminals to enter this market and once established to facilitate an increase in attempted migration.
The people smugglers business models will only be really disrupted if either the demand falls off, new legal safe routes are provided to the UK and or an effective returns programme is in place, that clears legal challenges to act as an effective deterrent to those considering making the trip where asylum would not be granted in the UK. The current estimate of 66% success rates for asylum, will dramatically fall if new UK legislation comes into force which will make otherwise legitimate asylum seekers ineligible if they use illegal means to travel to the UK. Deporting them though once here is likely to remain a continuing challenge without genuine international co operation.
2. Small Boat Crossings
Of the 45,755 migrants who successfully made the crossing in 2022, up from 28,400 in 2021 & 8,466 in 2020 – at least 6 out of 10 or 25,000 are expected to be recognised as refugees if the UK Government processed their asylum applications. Of these 7/10 are men, 1/10 women 2/10 or 8,700 are children. Those likely to be granted asylum are from Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Eritrea and Sudan (between 82% – 98% achieve success rates for asylum). Those less likely are from Albania, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Iraq.
Whilst the current laws of the UK require the UK Government to safeguard the lives of the migrants and to accept asylum seekers that make it to the U.K. (or into U.K. waters), some never make it. For example, on 14th December 2022, 4 lost their lives though 30 were saved by rescuers from a passing fishing boat saving at least 31. This follows the worst loss of life in a single incident on small boats on November 24, 2019, when 32 people died after their boat capsized, mostly Iraqi Kurds, Afghans, Ethiopians, a Somali and an Egyptian.
The political rhetoric is around targeting the business models of the people smugglers, who exploit and endanger migrants by putting them in unseaworthy small boats for profit, yet the political response is more about preventing or dissuading migrants including asylum seekers from reaching the UK rather than seriously disrupting the people smugglers.
For example after the 14th December, 2022 incident, French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin and U.K. Home Secretary Stella Braverman said the incident was, “a stark reminder of the urgent need to destroy the business model of people smugglers.”
On the 10th March, 2023, Rishi Sunak stated that, given the increase in arrivals, the immediate priority is measures that help to, “stop the flow of illegal arrivals”, which included new legislation making it more difficult for these irregular migrants to succeed in an asylum claim once they arrive in the UK. At a summit in France with President Macron, Sunak agreed a 3 year £500 million deal to fund French actions, stating, “we don’t need to manage this problem, we need to break it. And today we have gone further than ever before to put an end to this disgusting trade in human life.”
So far (by 7th April, 2023) 4,505 people have crossed illegally into the UK in 86 boats in 2023, which looks to be significantly down on 2022 (even compared to Q1 2022 numbers). Typically, the numbers undertaking Channel crossings significantly increases around May. Before this point, variable weather conditions make it difficult to gauge how high crossings are in a particular year. On several days in the past two years, crossings have exceeded 1,000. The all-time high so far was 1,295 on the 22nd of August 2022.
Overall, asylum-related removals (i.e. of those whose claims were rejected or whose application was deemed fit to be processed in another country) plummeted from 18,000 in 2005 to just over 1,100 in the year to June 2021. These figures includes all asylum claimants, not just those who entered the UK after traveling in small boats.
Due to an asylum backlog exceeding 100,000 cases, many of those to arrive by boat have yet to receive a conclusion to their asylum claim. However, of the 20,605 people who were identified for consideration as inadmissible, just 21 were actually removed from the country.
3. National Crime Agency and International Co operation
The lead responsibility for taking on the people smugglers in the UK goes to the National Crime Agency working with other agencies in the UK and of course with its French and European counterparts, including Europol.
In the NCA’s Annual Plan 2022/2023, the NCA is committed to “help protect the UK’s physical and virtual border from the impact from illicit commodities, organised immigration crime – with a focus on human trafficking and the threat from small boats – and online harms. This will be achieved by intervening upstream, close partnership working through international networks, and enhanced targeting both at the UK border and online. It will collect, share, exploit, and respond to intelligence to disrupt criminals and choke off supply upstream and at the border.”
Tackling organised immigration crime is one of the NCA’s highest priorities, with a dedicated unit, explaining that, “Organised immigration crime generates easy money for criminal groups, funds other forms of organised crime, and often endangers the lives of the migrants themselves.” The NCA refer to those they target not as “people smugglers” as their cargo is always intercepted, which is the point, usually by UK authorities. The smugglers routinely provide the telephone numbers of the French and British Coastguards to migrants before they leave. The NCA describes those involved as engaged in “organised immigration crime”, which is a more accurate description but people smuggling or trafficking are the terms used widely in the public discourse.
The fact that people smugglers make significant profits and put these migrants including refugees at risk in sending them out on mostly unseaworthy boats, is true and is reprehensible. But it is a market where the laws of supply and demand apply and where seemingly governments and law enforcement are unable to successfully disrupt enough of it.
This is not to say successes have not been achieved. For example:
- On 21st July, 2020, 11 people were arrested by U.K. Law Enforcement agencies, in co operation with French agencies and seizures of £150,000 in cash and 2 vehicles, because of suspicions of being members of an organised crime group that enabled the facilitation of illegal migrants using small boats between France and the UK.
- On 5th July, 2022, Law Enforcement agencies across Europe including in the UK arrested 39 (9 in France, 18 in Germany, 6 in the Netherlands and 6 in the UK) which included 3 high value targets, seized over 1200 lifejackets, about 150 rubber boats, close to 50 engines; and €40 000 in cash, firearms, cars and drugs. This Iraqi Kurdish criminal network was estimated to be responsible for up to half of the small boats market share, with a number of logistical cells operating from Germany and the Netherlands, alongside UK-based hawaladars, who helped move monies for this criminal network. Investigators identified more than 70 suspects with different roles in the criminal organisation, including smugglers, recruiters, accommodation providers, and drivers in charge of transporting nautical equipment, as well as those suspected as in charge of channelling the illegal money flows. The suspects charged on average €2,500 to €3,500 per migrant, depending on the nationality, to facilitate their transfer across the English Channel.
Co operation across Europe and beyond is essential, as NCA deputy director Andrea Wilson states: “We look to target and disrupt organised crime groups involved in people smuggling at every step of the route” and “much of this criminality lies outside the UK, so we have built up our intelligence sharing effort with law enforcement partners in France and beyond.”
4. People Smuggler Business Models
These criminal gangs have evolved their business models and increasingly use 8 -12 metre inflatable boats ordered from Turkey that can theoretically float with up to 40-50 people aboard, though they are designed to carry no more than 10-15. The engines are imported from China and are underpowered for the task ahead, and often run out of fuel. When the boat is overcrowded, the underpowered engine makes any sea crossing dangerous when conditions are more challenging on the water, and not forgetting the channel is the busiest shipping lane in the world. The Turkish boats (often ordered from China) are sold at a much cheaper price than they would be available in the EU, but they are transported from Turkey once an order is placed and can arrive in just 3 – 4 days into the EU, for example via Turkish Organised Crime Gangs operating in Germany and then once legally imported into Germany, they are then delivered to the People Smugglers in Belgium and France. The price for the boats can be up to €35,000 and payment made up front, for example to an Istanbul money agent who acts as a witting intermediary.
The Boats are hidden near their embarkation point which can be anywhere mainly across the 120 km Pas-de-Calais coast and readied for launch, once the French Police, who are active and looking for them are given the slip. As the Police look for the smugglers, the smugglers look for and avoid the French Police.
At, for example, €3,000 per person, a single boat can generate over €100,000 a trip. Payments by migrants are all made up front, so if they don’t make it the profit is the same, and of course the boat is forfeit. Payments can be in cash or from third party sources to the people smugglers or more likely to professional money launderers or trusted intermediaries and will be thus hard for financial institutions to spot.
In 2022, 44,755 migrants crossed the channel in 1,109 small boats, (Av 41 per boat). Based on ticket prices of €3,000 that’s revenue of €134 M (£118 M) & costs of €44,360,000 (deducting the costs – boats & other logistics), makes a profit of €90 M (£80 M) for the people smugglers.
Putting these figures into context, as far as illicit criminal proceeds are concerned is useful. Whilst this may sound like a lot of money in comparison to moneys generated from other illicit activities it is not, though it’s still profitable for those involved.
5. People Smuggling revenues compared with other Illicit proceeds.
The UK’s 3rd National AML/CTF Risk Assessment (NRA) was published in 2020 & identified fraud & tax offences, illicit drugs, cyber crime, theft, human smuggling & human trafficking/modern slavery & the illegal wildlife trade as the criminal activities most of concern (high proceeds), with funds laundered possibly in the hundreds of billions of pounds annually.
Estimates for example from the 2020 NRA as to the proceeds of crime include:
- Fraud (and tax evasion) as the “largest known source of criminal proceeds from offending in the UK, as well as the most common crime type.” It also states that, “Fraud continues to cover a broad range of crime types, victims and perpetrators.
- The UK’s National Fraud Authority published 3 estimates during its 4 year existence for years 2010 through to 2013, updating the estimate from £30 billion in 2010 to £39 billion in 2011 to £79 billion in 2012 and to £52 billion. When broken down by sector, the indicator in 2013 revealed that fraud losses to the public sector amounted to £20.6 billion, the private sector lost £21.2 billion, the not-for-profit sector lost £147 million and individuals lost £9.1 billion.
- Drug trafficking of at least £5.3 billion, tax evasion at £4.6 billion & other tax offences (including smuggling) at £4.5 billion, and laundered illicit funds via the UK could “be in the hundreds of billions of pounds annually” and “is likely that the majority of this is corrupt money from outside the UK”4
6. Deaths in the Channel
According to the International Organization for Migration, (IOM) Missing Migrants Project at least 57 migrants drowned in the English Channel trying to reach the UK between 2018 and 2022 (2018 -1; 2019 – 5; 2020 – 9; 2021 – 37; 2022 – 5). These included incidents:
- On November 24, 2021, the worst loss of life in the channel for years was reported as 32 people died when their small boat capsized, with deaths including a girl of 5 and her teenage siblings.
- On 14 December 2022, 4 migrants died and more than 40 were rescued after a small boat began sinking in ice-cold waters off the British coast in the middle of the night.
7. Deaths due to Lorries
People Smuggling deaths from lorries in the same period was almost double at 97 (2018 – 0; 2019 – 39 2020 -58; 2021 – 0; & 2022 – 0). These losses of life came from 2 major incidents.
On 19th June 2000, 58 Chinese migrants were found dead in a lorry of the port of Dover, after a ferry crossing from Zeebrugge Belgium, when UK Customs officials inspected the cargo and found just 2 of 60 passengers alive.
On 23 October 2019, the bodies of 39 Vietnamese people – 31 men and 8 women, were found in the trailer of a refrigerated lorry in Essex in the UK. The trailer had been shipped from Zeebrugge in Belgium, to Purfleet in Essex in the UK. The lorry had passed through UK customs but when the driver stopped to check on his cargo, finding them all dead, he contacted the police.
8. People Smuggling via Lorries
Until relatively recently the numbers of so called irregular or illegal immigrants, found their way to the UK, mostly smuggled in lorries crossing from a Channel port in the Netherlands, Belgium or France. According to Migration Watch UK It was only since 2020, that small boats crossings passengers exceeded those estimated to be arriving by lorries (including containers). From 2014 to 2020 total irregular or illegal immigration was estimated at 69,209 from lorries and boats, with lorries responsible for 58,590 or 85% of the total. By 2020, 32% came by lorry. Tighter security at ports and around the Channel Tunnel itself has had the unintended side-effect of diverting migrant flows to the sea route. This was achieved by enhanced Anglo-French cooperation and heavy investment in physical security around Calais, largely funded by Britain, including leftover security fencing from the 2012 Olympics. The so called Calais “Jungle” was demolished in October 2016, with migrants being dispersed away from the immediate area.
9. Costs to the UK
Whilst the revenue generated to criminals may be small in comparison to other illicit funds the costs to the UK are not insignificant. For example, in March 2023 the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI) published estimates that a third of the UK’s aid budget – £3.5 billion – was spent in the UK meeting the costs of hosting refugees in 2022, which included those arriving in small boats as well as others, including those arriving on the Afghan and Ukrainian schemes. An increasing amount of UK aid has been spent on UK-based refugees, with spending more than doubling from £424 million in 2016 to £898 million in 2021 (rising from 3.2% of the aid budget to 7.5%). Most of this money went towards providing food and shelter for refugees. Other aid, such as on scholarships and administration, is also spent in the UK. In 2021, this totalled £727 million.
10. Human Trafficking and People Smuggling
The Modern Slavery Act 2015, includes a National Referral Mechanism (NRM), which places responsibility on first responders or front line workers to identify and refer for support potential victims of modern slavery. In 2019 only 6% of those that failed asylum claims claimed modern slavery status (within the first 3 months of their arrival) which has since increased to 65% in 2022, with over half of these Albanians, according to the UK Home Office.
11. UN Refugee Convention 1951 and 1967 Protocol
Asylum seekers rely on the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol which have been adopted by 149 State parties which define the term ‘refugee’ and outlines the rights of refugees, as well as the legal obligations of signatory States to protect them. The core principle is non-refoulement, which asserts that a refugee should not be returned to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom. For internationally displaced refugees and modern slaves, who face a “well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion” who flee their home country, they are generally legally entitled to seek asylum in a third country. A common misconception is that asylum seekers should claim asylum in the first country they reach where they are safe. This is not correct and those that journey to the UK are entitled to wait to claim asylum if and when they arrive in the UK, at least under current UK law, which may change if the Illegal Immigration Bill is enacted.
12. The EU Dublin 3 Regulation & EU Wide Returns Agreement
Prior to Brexit, the UK was party to an EU wide returns agreement, though due to the terms of the regulation the UK received more transfers from EU countries than it returned. The Regulation’s purpose was to ensure that an asylum application was only considered by one of the participating states, setting a hierarchy for determining which state should be responsible for processing an asylum application, giving greater importance to family reunion than which country an asylum seeker first entered.
Recent immigration statistics (July 2020) give figures for incoming and outgoing transfer requests in 2019:
• The UK received 2,236 requests from EU member states to accept transfers of individuals to the UK, and 714 transfers took place. The majority of these (496) were from Greece.
• The UK made 3,259 transfer requests to EU member states, and 263 transfers took place. 40% (104) went to Germany and 20% (53) went to France.
According to a 2023 Report by Professor of Law and Government at Durham Law School, Durham University, which focussed on the underlying reasons behind the large increase in the number of asylum seekers arriving in the UK after crossing the English Channel by small boats, he found that, “The UK’s lack of a returns policy is the most significant pull factor for small boat journeys. Leaving the EU without a returns arrangement has meant individuals can now travel to the UK with the knowledge it is much more difficult for them to be returned post-2020 – which has not been true when the UK was in the EU pre-2020. When coupled with slow processing times for asylum applications, the UK has become easier to remain inside if and when migrants are able to get to our shores.”
The argument that the loss of the threat of ejection from the UK as a result of Brexit is contested by others despite the big increase in small boat traffic in 2020 coinciding with the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and the loss of the use of the EU returns regulation, mainly based on the statistics showing few were actually returned before Brexit. Those contesting Brexit has had an impact, nevertheless promote the importance of having a returns option with a third country, with Rwanda the country chosen by the UK Government. The intent is not just to have a third country to send successful asylum seekers, but to act as a deterrent to those asylum seekers intending to journey to the UK.
13. A Global Challenge
The US has seen illegal crossings from Mexico into the USA surging, with over 1.7 million migrants detained in 2021, setting a new record, the EU has struggled to control its borders ever since the migration crisis of 2015, and Australia has had to cope with two major waves of “boat people” – illegal maritime arrivals across the Pacific – in the last two decades. Global push factors include Natural disasters and wars, notably the wars and unrest in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria Iran and Libya and endemic cartel warfare in Central America. Global warming, access to water and food security are likely to increase these push factors and effect many more people, leading likely to increasing international migration around the world.
As far as immigration comparisons are concerned for 2021 between the UK and the EU (Data from the EU Commission and the UK Home Office):
- Germany received the largest number of asylum applications at 148,165 followed by 103,780 for France, 62,055 for Spain, 45,195 for Italy, 37,805 for Austria, 24,730 for the Netherlands. 22,655 for Greece, 19,545 for Belgium and 13,260 for Cyprus from approx 2.3 million immigrants entering the EU.
- The UK received 58,532 asylum applications, from approx 1.064 million immigrants entering the UK.
14. Final Remarks / Conclusion
With tackling “irregular” or “illegal” migration recognised as a top 5 priority for the UK government, the focus is not so much on the people smugglers and the organised criminal gangs that support their travel to the UK. Whilst the UK government publicly calls for action to disrupt or break the “business model of people smugglers”, it is actions designed to beef up border security and barriers to mobility which have lead migrants to rely on people smugglers to reach harder to get to destinations, even where this involves significant risk. The actions that are currently being promoted are changes in laws to make it harder to succeed in any asylum claim and in trying to establish a returns policy as a deterrent to travel.
By exploring the phenomenon of the small boats in more detail, its appears that
- people smuggling in small boats generates around 0.1% of estimated financial crime proceeds – money’s laundered in or connected to the UK, and less than 1% of these criminal profits are seized and or recovered.
- some significant law enforcement successes have been achieved against the people smugglers, including by targeting boat sales and logistics, and some groups have been effectively disrupted, the overall trade has not, and others have backfilled any gaps, with big annual growth rates still being recorded – though the trafic in 2023 does appear down so far..
- deaths in lorries for asylum seekers actually exceeded deaths in the channel when this was the preferred route
- many of the policy interventions to date aimed at disrupting people smuggling networks may instead have made smuggling more lucrative and increased the incentives for criminals to enter this market and once established to facilitate an increase in attempted migration.
The people smugglers business models will only be really disrupted if either the demand falls off, new legal safe routes are provided to the UK and or an effective returns programme is in place, that clears legal challenges to act as an effective deterrent to those considering making the trip where asylum would not be granted in the UK. The current estimate of 66% success rates for asylum, will dramatically fall if new UK legislation comes into force which will make otherwise legitimate asylum seekers ineligible if they use illegal means to travel to the UK. Deporting them though once here is likely to remain a continuing challenge without genuine international co operation.
