Punishing Putin by Stephanie Baker is well worth a read and is a well documented reminder of what the last 2 and half years of western sanctions against the Russian regime for its unlawful invasion of Ukraine has meant which has involved targeting finance, oil and gas, elites, oligarchs, defence, electronics, to name the most important at unprecedented levels. Whilst the costs to Russia from these unprecedented sanctions are real, and are likely to have long term consequences for Russia’s future the initial optimism that sanctions could quickly “kneecap” Putin’s war machine has proved premature. 

Stephanie Baker reminds us of the description of Russia quoting former US Senator John McCain as “a gas station masquerading as a country” which is unfair but has a ring to it. 

Comprehensively sanctioning a country which produces 11% of the world’s oil and is the 11th largest economy in the world by Western countries and allies, can have material consequences but without the full support of all G20 countries and many other third countries these sanctions can be undermined and in time sanctions circumvented which they are being. The experiment to use sanctions as the best available realistic alternative made sense and without an alternative strategy still makes sense.  The approach to use rolling sanctions rather than throwing the “kitchen sink” at Russia right from the start, may in retrospect look over cautious, though the capacity and consensus needed to do more, quicker was never available.

By denying Ukraine access though to leading military assets and technology and its free use, it may be that it is Western restrictions applied to Ukraine ironically and not those on Russia that may have the biggest effect on the progress of the war in Ukraine.  After all it’s the technological advantage the West has over Russia and others that is likely the difference maker now and in the future as to how major conflicts are won and lost with underlying economic strength along with political will and leadership.